Scientists Reveal the Truth behind Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles
Chevy Volt
National Academy of Sciences, USA has published a study in potential benefits of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Sponsored by DoE, the study sheds the light of some previously unknown aspects of green motoring.
According to the scientists, even if the same course is maintained and the government keeps funding the development, there would me no more than 40 million plug-in hybrid vehicles on the road by 2030. The more realistic figure is 13 million, which considers the consumer scepticism and some other unpredictable issues.
To simulate the model of future motoring two hypothetical vehicles were used. Vehicle-10 is similar to Toyota Prius plug-in and can do 10 miles without gas. Vehicle-40 is similar to Chevy Volt doing up to 40 miles on electricity.
It was found that Vehicle-10 would cost at least $3,300 more than a convention hybrid to make. In operation it would save its owner 20pc of the gas necessary for older hybs. If we stick to that hypothetical figure of 40 million cars by 2030, the full fleet of plugins would save USA 2% of current daily passenger car fuel consumption. It would take hundreds of billions dollars of taxpayers money to maintain the current development. That would turn out to be a very costly 2% savings with the positive impact not really worth the fuss. The Vehicle-40 is likely to be saving more than 55% of usual fuel consumption still it is harder to market.
The authors of this study have estimated that plugins would be able to make a significant impact only around 2050. Therefore they are suggesting what makes the most sense - a portfolio approach. I.e. not focusing on a certain type of green cars but spreading the effort on hydrogen, electric cars and, what’s more important, making our gas guzzlers even more efficient.
The Academy found that the biggest challenge of plug-in hybrid vehicles is the cost of batteries and related equipment. They have estimated that costs to manufacture a Vehicle–40 can be as much as $18,000 more than to make a conventional passenger car of same size. You would struggle to make any fuel savings during the car’s lifetime. It depends on your way of life. If you mostly do short runs - you will make savings. If you use your hyb just like any other petrol car, you won’t. Besides, when it comes to cutting CO2 - a hybrid takes more CO2 to manufacture and while 50pc of our electricity is being generated in coal stations, your positive impact on cutting emissions would be either insignificant or none.
This comes like a shocker to many of us. At least DoE is upfront and transparent, which shows that common sense is still stronger than corporative lobbying.
If I may express my personal feelings, I shall say that the only way I can see an electric car or a plug-in hybrid vehicle working for the environment is that the household owning it comes off the grid. Coming off the grid means not using energy suppliers, installing a wind generator and putting solar units on the roof. If you generate your own clean electricity, all this alternative vehicle idea suddenly starts making perfect sense. And don’t believe those who say that installing renewable energy sources cost a fortune. Ever heard of DIY? We shall return to this topic later.
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